THE BITCOIN COUNCIL

Strong bid-side imbalance and a heavy buy wall at $63.5k provide a solid structural floor. Thinner ask-side depth suggests a path of least resistance toward the upside.

The market is in a confirmed Markup phase with bullish structure, characterized by price trading above key EMAs and supported by volume expansion.

Momentum is severely overextended with clear bearish divergence across RSI and MACD. Expect a mean reversion move as buying pressure exhausts.

On-chain data indicates that 'Smart Money' whales are actively accumulating Bitcoin by moving significant volumes off exchanges into cold storage, supported by overall decreasing exchange reserves and strong long-term holder conviction.

Significant Kimchi (+1.5%) and Coinbase (+0.8%) premiums indicate strong regional buying pressure, driving fragmented price discovery. These demand imbalances present clear arbitrage opportunities and signal a bullish market leaning.

The network is in a robust expansion phase with hashrate near all-time highs, driven by efficient hardware deployments and strong infrastructure investment.

Market sentiment is characterized by professional optimism and institutional validation. The absence of retail euphoria suggests significant room for growth before a sentiment-driven peak.

Judicial pushback against SEC overreach and the implementation of structured frameworks like MiCA are removing barriers for institutional entry, signaling a high-liquidity environment.

Upcoming hard events like Mt. Gox payouts and potential options on BTC ETFs are volatility catalysts. Soft events such as Bitcoin 2024 and MicroStrategy earnings are likely non-events for direct price discovery.

Global liquidity is shifting toward expansion as the Federal Reserve signals imminent rate cuts, weakening the DXY and creating a favorable 'Risk-On' environment for digital assets.

Bitcoin is firmly in the 'Accumulation' phase of its new 4-year Halving Cycle, approximately two months post-halving, driven by reinforced scarcity and laying the groundwork for significant long-term appreciation as per S2F dynamics and aging HODL Waves.

The market shows a strong bullish confluence supported by macro and on-chain data, though technical oscillators suggest a potential short-term cooling period.