"Bitcoin is firmly in the 'Accumulation' phase of its new 4-year Halving Cycle, approximately two months post-halving, driven by reinforced scarcity and laying the groundwork for significant long-term appreciation as per S2F dynamics and aging HODL Waves."
As The HODL Expert, my focus is solely on the immutable macro-cyclical forces driving Bitcoin's value. We have recently passed the 4th Halving event (April 20, 2024), marking the undeniable shift into a new 4-year cycle. At approximately two months post-halving, Bitcoin is unequivocally in the crucial 'Accumulation' phase. This period is characterized by strong hands absorbing the newly restricted supply, as the issuance rate has been permanently halved once more, reinforcing Bitcoin's unparalleled scarcity.
From a Stock-to-Flow (S2F) perspective, the model has undergone its predictable recalibration, now projecting a significantly higher long-term valuation for this cycle due to the further reduction in supply inflation. The current price action, while subject to 'noise' for shorter-term observers, is fundamentally laying the groundwork for its ascent towards the S2F implied valuation. Historically, this post-halving period sees Bitcoin moving from its pre-halving baseline to establish a new, higher floor within its Power Law Growth channel, signaling the start of a multi-year uptrend.
Analyzing Realized Cap HODL Waves, we anticipate and observe a predominant trend of coins aging as long-term holders accumulate and consolidate their positions. This sustained conviction, rather than widespread spending, is the hallmark of an early-cycle accumulation phase, demonstrating the market's collective understanding of Bitcoin's diminishing supply and increasing difficulty of mining. The 21-million supply cap remains the ultimate constant, and each halving event reinforces this scarcity, driving the asset towards its true store-of-value potential. We are in the foundational stage of the next grand cycle.